The market closed with more gains across major stock indexes on Tuesday — the S&P 500 posted its seventh record close of the year — and trading history suggests July can be a big winner for equities.
Investors are showing some signs of wariness because performance has been so strong already. Stocks surged in the first half of 2019, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up close to 15% and rallying 7.2% in June, its best monthly performance since 1938. The S&P 500 rose more than 17% in the first half, the best for the index since 1997, and it just notched its best June since 1955.
The run has to end — at some point. This month marks the 121st month of the economic expansion since the financial crisis, the longest run on record going back to 1854. And the July earnings outlook is bad: 77% of companies issuing pre-announcements say their profits will be worse than Wall Street estimates, the second-worst quarter since 2006.
“We still do not see a recession, but we continue to worry…