Traders work the floor of the NYSE.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters
The bull market celebrated its 10-year anniversary with one of its strongest first halves on record, but the second half of 2019 could present some turbulence for the market.
The S&P 500 rose more than 17% in the first half, making this the best first half for the index since 1997, but the outlook for the next six months lacks clarity. The continuing trade war between the U.S. and China, uncertainty around the Federal Reserves’s rate policies and the expectation of weakening earnings could combine to create a bumpy ride.
A note from Barclays last month said that a substantial increase in the second half would require a significant trade war deescalation, a rate cut and a continued softness of the industrial slowdown.
With all the uncertainty, Brian Belski of BMO Capital Markets wrote that the second half “will be a grind higher rather than a straight shot.”
The first big reveal for the second half came over the weekend, as…